And now we are down again. The Dow started the week at 25,900 and we hit 26,130 on Tuesday but now back to 25,830 this morning so, on the whole, we'll be lucky to finish the week out flat. It's a clearly manipulated, low-volume market and JP Morgan points out that, despite the S&P 500 surging 20% from its December low – almost every catagegory of investors tracked by JPM, from individuals to hedge funds and computer-driven trading, has shown little inclination to chase the rally. Dwindling liquidity is often dragged into discussions of market meltdowns. In December, for instance, when the S&P 500 plunged toward the brink of a bear market, both President Donald Trump and strategists from Goldman Sachs flagged it as potentially escalating the sell-off. While very dangerous if the market turns negative, JPM says these low-volume conditions could also keep the rally going: “Given liquidity, it is plausible that just short covering, buybacks, dealers’ gamma hedging, and some limited re-leveraging drove the entire recovery. This, in turn, opens the possibility that the current rally can continue during the spring.” JPM cites the dramatic reversal in Central Bank policies as putting another floor under the market. While I agree with their premise, I believe it, like most bullish premises, is ignoring the risks of the overall Global slowdown driven by the Trade Wars, Rising Oil Prices and Brexit as well as the dramatic slowdown in Corporate Profits we'll see now that they don't have additional tax breaks and, of course, rising wages will eat into profits as well. Bullish but cautious is the best description of our stance. As long as we hold those 200-day moving averages, things are fine but I'd sure feel better if the Russell could manage to take back their 200 dma at 1,592 (the bar is lowered every day) it doesn't seem too much to ask, does it? As I noted recently, as long as we're over the 50 dma, they keep on rising and, when they cross over the 200 dma, that will be a very bullish signal – just as the cross… Provided courtesy of Phil's Stock World. To read the rest of this article now, along with Phil's live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil's market calls, additional member comments, and other members-only features - Come to the winning side at Phil's Stock World by clicking here. To sign-up for a free trial membership, click here.